Most market timers are out of time:

February 14th, 2017

TSX60As you know – many of the broader Global stock indices are at or close to all-time highs. We at Getting Technical conclude that any attempt to time the market is a failed strategy. Investors who use fully invested longer term models do better than investors who over-trade or market time. Investors who use fully invested dominant theme models do better than investors who over-trade or market time. Our focus will remain on the Global, TSX models and Dominant Theme investing

At Getting Technical our historical market studies dictate that bear markets print a lower low within a rolling 26 to 30 week time window. The TSX timing model displayed is based on a simple 26 week price channel.

Strategy – Investors should remain fully invested during a “buy” and then go to a 10 to 15% cash position during a “sell” signal. The last “buy” on the TSX60 (23.49) was signaled on May 27, 2016 at 20.82 on the index.

 

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What is going on?

January 30th, 2017

MDII see last week I see most of the base metal miners (to include Cameco) all trading at or close to new 52-week highs.

Some of the names – Capstone Mining, First Quantum, Hudbay Minerals, Lundin Mining and Teck Resources. We know there is no exchange traded fund for this small group and we know the TSX has dropped the Mines & Metals Index – so we need a clone or proxy to participate

I note that when I was on BNN Market Call Last June with MDI at $7.01 a said – “This is basically the canary in the mineshaft for the mining space. The miners have done really well, so this is the major way to play the recovery and resurgence of interest in the mining sector.”

Since then – not one quest has mentioned the name

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What is with Info-Tech?

September 24th, 2016

xitI see last week the TSX listed iShares S&P/TSX Info Tech ETF (XIT) traded up to close at perhaps an all-time high. The XIT, according to the manager – seeks long-term capital growth by replicating the performance of the S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index, net of expenses.

 

Years ago the sector (index) was dominated by Nortel – now the sector is capped and has matured and broadened out to hold about 20 names to include the likes of CGI GROUP INC (GIB.A), CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC. (CSU), OPEN TEXT CORP (OTC), BLACKBERRY LTD (BB) and DH CORP (DH).

Technically we know the technology sector is economy sensitive and so the current strength of the XIT is very bullish for the broader markets. Our chart is the weekly bars of the XIT – with the related 40 week simple moving average – plotted above the TSX 60 Index – in this case the clone iShares (XIU).

Note the price is above a rising 40-wk MA. The lower study is a ratio, or spread smoothed by a 20-week simple moving average. Note the out perform through 2014 and 2015 – a short under perform and now the recent return to out perform.

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Are you a Bull or a Bear?

August 31st, 2016

GSOBVTechnically a picture is worth a thousand words –certainly worth more than a compelling story. It is that compelling story that keeps us in a losing investment – long after the picture looks bad.

Technically we know the financial stocks lead the broader equity markets and finally the best technical indicator is the very long term primary trend line. So all the technician needs is a long term bar chart – monthly bars – a semi-log scale and a straight edge

The lower study is the old reliable Joseph E. Grandville On-Balance-Volume (OBV)

The plot of 10+ years of Goldman (GS) tells it all.

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Popular torpedo stocks:

August 12th, 2016

VRX2According to BNN the shares of Concordia International tumbled six per cent on Friday after the company replaced its chief financial officer and slashed its outlook

Most technical analysts I know were not surprised – visit comments on Stockchace.com

Stockchase.com 2015-05-22             COMMENT – Bill Carrigan re Concordia Healthcare Stock Symbol: CXR-T ($83.70) “Chart shows a long run up with a sort of spiked top. Thinks these types of companies are overcrowded trades. They are driven by promises with great stories. He would just avoid it unless you are a trader.”

Stockchase.com 2016-03-24             DON’T BUY – Bill Carrigan re Valeant Pharmaceuticals Stock Symbol: VRX-T ($41.20) “There is a technical rule on spikes. There is a head and shoulders pattern suggesting downside is on the way.  Usually it takes 2 or 3 years to correct the damage.  Does the price lead the fundamentals? He can show you that they were in trouble before the last torpedo. The technicians knew the 50% sell off was coming.  In many cases you cannot avoid them. This was a case where you could avoid it.”

The technical rule on torpedoes is that in many cases you can’t predict them (Potash) but some are preceded by warnings – such as an over-loved story that has broken down below the important 40-wk moving average – the other rule is to never invest following the torpedo – it takes up to three years to repair the story

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